Industrialised countries will collectively meet 2010 Kyoto target

Recently the European Union and other industrialised countries have published new national emission inventories through 2005, which were officially submitted to the UN Climate Secretariat (UNFCCC). MNP has summarised the trend in historical emissions for the period 1990-2005 of the group of countries with an emission target under the Kyoto Protocol (so-called Annex I countries to the Kyoto Protocol) and extrapolated the emissions trend of the last five years (Figures 1 and 2). Three groups are distinguished: 1. Countries of the EU-15, for which the European Union also collectively ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 1997; 2. Other OECD’90 countries (in particular Japan, Canada and, recently, also Australia); Economies In Transition (EIT) (Russia, Ukraine and other Eastern European countries). Although the USA has not ratified the protocol, it is also shown in the graph for comparison.

Total emission reduction target of countries with a Kyoto target: -4.1%

From the greenhouse gas emissions reported in 2007 it was calculated that the group of countries that committed themselves to a Kyoto target (now including Australia), collectively will reduce their emissions by 4.1% compared to the base year when they all meet their Kyoto target. If the USA would have joined the other industrialised countries in having an emissions target, the total group figure would have been a 5.1% reduction. The mostly limited contribution of ‘sinks’ (carbon storage in forests and soils) from Land Use Change and Forestry (so-called LUCF) and possible (but usually limited) corrections in response to the expert reviews in 2007 of the national emissions inventories have not been included here, lacking completeness in reports on officially accepted emissions and carbon sink data.

Limited increase in OECD countries; large reduction in Russia and Eastern Europe

The greenhouse gas emissions of the EU-15 has been almost constant over the last 15 years (-1.5% in 2005), while emissions of other OECD countries increased by 15% on average (6.9% for Japan and about 25% for Canada, Australia and New Zealand). In contrast, emissions of the EIT countries (Russia and Eastern and Central Europe) decreased by 35% on average compared to their base year (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Emission trend (left) and extrapolation and comparison with the Kyoto target (right) for groups of countries with a Kyoto target (source: UNFCCC).

Assuming that greenhouse gas emissions of these three groups of countries will continue according to the trend shown for the past five years, the image emerges as shown in the right-hand side of Figure 1, where the result of a linear extrapolation of the 2000-2005 trend to 2010 is compared with the Kyoto targets for the 2010 (i.e. the average of the 2008-2012 period). Greenhouse gas emissions of the EU-15, which decreased slightly (-1.5%) over the last 15 years, are expected in 2010 to remain lower than the base year and close to the Kyoto target of 8% reduction. Total emissions of other OECD countries with a Kyoto target are expected to continue to increase on average by about 0.5% per year, whereas the Kyoto targets of its largest countries Japan and Canada are -6% and for Australia it is +8%. Also emissions of the EIT countries (Russia and Eastern Europe), in 2005 in total 35% below their base year level, are expected to continue to increase by over 1% per year on average, while there Kyoto targets are +1% (Russia and Ukraine, accounting for more than 2/3 of the EIT total in 2005) or -8% (other Central and Eastern European countries) (Figure 1).

Industrialised countries will meet collective Kyoto target for 2010

The group industrialised countries with a Kyoto target will probably meet their emission limitation requirements of about 4% reduction. This target will even be met without accounting for the so-called CDM projects that aim at emission reductions in developing countries and fast growing economies and which reduction may be accounted for as part of the national Kyoto target (Figure 2). When linearly extrapolating the trend of the last five years to 2010 (the average of the Kyoto target period 2008-2012), the emission reduction in 2010 of this group as countries will be close to 11%. When including all 2800 CDM projects “in the pipeline”, which account for approximately 500 megatonne (= million) CO2 equivalent per year, the total reduction may even be as large as 15%.

The collective reduction of 11%, expected under the assumption listed above, is due to the limited increase in emissions in OECD countries (e.g. a stabilisation in the European Union for the last 10 years) and in particular due to the large reduction of about 40% until 1999 in the Economies In Transition (EIT) (Russia, Ukraine and other Eastern European countries). In the EIT countries, as a result of their economic recovery, greenhouse gas emissions started to increase again (at an average rate of 1% per year), while the Kyoto target of the largest countries is +1% and -8% for the smaller countries (see Figure 1). The latter also aids that the present EU-27 meets its collective Kyoto target.

Few or no purchases of emissions from Russia or Eastern Europe

The ‘Clean Development Mechanism’ (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol provides an opportunity for countries to meet their Kyoto target partly by emission reduction projects in developing countries and fast growing economies, of which the reduction can be accounted as national achievement. The European Union expects that the 15 member states, for which the EU ratified the Kyoto Protocol as regional organisation, will meet the collective target of -8% for the EU-15, when including the expected CDM projects and Joint Implementation (JI) projects that are planned to contribute 2.5% and the carbon storage in forests and soils (‘sinks’) contributing another 0.9%, totalling 3.4% (EEA, 2007). Japan expects to meet its Kyoto target by including 1.6% reduction from CDM projects and another 3.9% from carbon storage in forests and soils, totalling 5.5%. Many of the other OECD’90 countries saw increases in their emissions: in Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Switzerland emissions increased by 25% compared to the base year; in Norway the increase was 9%. These countries will only be able to meet their Kyoto target by purchasing sufficient CDM credits or by buying emissions from EIT countries, of which the 2010 emissions will remain well below their Kyoto target. In addition to the carbon sinks they may account for in the protocol, in particular Canada and Australia will probably need to purchase large amounts of emission reduction credits through the three so-called ‘flexible mechanisms’ of the Kyoto Protocol: CDM projects, JI projects in Russia or Eastern European countries, or purchase of emissions from other countries. 

Figure 2. Emission trend (left) and extrapolation and comparison with the Kyoto target (right) for all countries with a Kyoto target. The upper solid bullet is the domestic Kyoto target when including the about 500 megatonne per year from CDM projects in the pipeline (source: UNFCCC).

Completion of Kyoto target with emission reduction in developing countries and fast growing economies: CDM projects

The amount of emissions reductions in the 2800 CDM projects “in the pipeline” of more than 500 megatonne of CO2-equivalents per year (= million tonnes), of which almost half are located in China, is more than sufficient for the planned purchase of 107.5 megatonne by the EU-15 countries and 11 megatonne by Japan and for meeting the Kyoto targets of the other OECD countries. Including these other countries a total of over 400 megatonne per year from CDM projects is required, so there seems to be no need to purchase unused emissions (‘hot air’) in Russia or Eastern European countries. Moreover, the total additional amount of foreign reductions required for OECD countries to meet their targets will be somewhat lower since countries may also account for reductions via carbon storage.

United States

The greenhouse gas emissions of the USA, that did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol, increased 16% since 1990. Showing an increasing trend, also recently, the USA will not meet the target of 6% reduction originally aimed at. The USA has implemented national and also state-level climate policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions (e.g through increasing energy efficiency, reduction of non-CO2 emissions such as methane, increasing the share of renewable energy such as bioethanol).  The share of the USA in global greenhouse gas emissions is approximately equal to that of all other OECD’90 countries together.

Climate policy in developing countries and fast growing economies

In several larger developing countries and fast growing economies (China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, Iran) greenhouse gas emissions are increasing rapidly. However, the emissions per capita are often still much lower than of traditional industrialised countries. Although non-Annex countries do not have a quantitative emission target, according to the Kyoto Protocol all countries that ratified the protocol have committed themselves, to the extent possible and taking national circumstance into consideration, to define and implement national climate policies aiming at mitigating climate change. For example, emissions of China have been increased strongly over the last 15 years, often by more than 10% per year, as a result of a fast industrialisation and the associated rapid increase of per capita income. However, China has also developed a national climate policy programme to mitigate the emissions growth. Examples of policy measures are the closure of old, less efficient coal-fired power plants and cement production plants to increase the energy efficiency in these industry sectors. In addition, as mentioned above, CDM projects in developing countries and fast growing economies amounting to more than 500 megatonne of CO2-eq. per year are in the pipeline (which is equivalent to about 2½ times the emissions of the Netherlands). Through these projects the attention of policy makers in developing countries and fast growing economies to climate policy is further enforced. At present, almost all developing countries and fast growing economies have monitored their national greenhouse gas emissions and are searching for projects that provide inexpensive options for emission reductions and of which the emission reduction is being monitored when executed. 

Kyoto Protocol: a small, first step

In 1990 the countries with a Kyoto target had a share of 30% in global greenhouse gas emissions; in 2005 the share was decreased to about 20%. The Kyoto Protocol, therefore, is only a first small step to mitigate global emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

Accuracy of extrapolation method

The applicability of the method of linear extrapolation of the 2000-2005 trend to estimate 2010 emissions can be assumed since during the short term of the projection (5 years) the total effect of additional policy measures on the emissions trend is rather limited. Uncertainties and deviations of the trend are mainly dependent on two aspects:

• whether there are new reduction measures with a large impact, either in the recent past (trend period 2000-2005) or in the near future (extrapolation period 2005-2010);
• whether the average economic growth will change strongly in the second half of this decade compared to the first half.    

In addition, as mentioned above, meeting the Kyoto targets is also influenced by LUCF emissions and carbon sinks both in the base year and in the target period 2008-2012 and by possible correction of base year and last year as a result of the initial review of national greenhouse gas inventories under the Kyoto Protocol, that have been conducted this year. These two aspects have not been considered here, except for the carbon sinks that the EU and Japan are expecting to include in meeting their Kyoto target and the observation that by and large no large changes are to be expected from the initial reviews of the inventories, since they have been reviewed now for a series of years.

• To the data (.xls file) of figures 1 and 2