COP15 and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)

This page is a compilation of the special website 'COP15 and the PBL' which was operational during the COP15 conference in Copenhagen and some time after. It contains an overview of the side events with presentations and videos and a list of COP15 related publications.

The recognition of climate change as a key global environmental problem has led to a large number of policy responses, worldwide. These responses culminate in the unprecedented global governance effort of the COP15 in Copenhagen. However, rapidly increasing emissions seem to outpace policy responses, so far. The implementation of yet unknown, but surely drastic measures, worldwide, will be a key challenge for policymakers in the future.

Evaluation of Copenhagen: increased support for two-degree target, but emission reductions too low

The political support for limiting the increase in global temperatures to two degrees has grown, but – as was expected – legally binding international agreements have not yet been made. China and India have agreed to an analysis of their greenhouse gas reduction efforts, financial commitments have been made (30 billion dollars in 2010-2012), and an agreement was reached on management of a fund to combat the consequences of climate change in developing countries. According to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), these are the main points of the ‘Copenhagen Accord’, reached in Copenhagen, between the major parties, headed by the United States, China, India, the EU, and Brazil.

• More of the evaluation

Side events held at COP15

Where do we stand today? And what is needed to support future worldwide implementation of successful policy approaches? These were the key questions of the side events organised by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) at the COP15 in Copenhagen, under the heading ‘Successful Climate Policies after Copenhagen’.

These events together aimed to explore the main preconditions for successful climate policies post-Copenhagen, at supranational, national and local levels, and covered themes varying from adaptation to climate change in low-lying river deltas, via key negotiating issues, such as comparable efforts and hot air, to policy options for extreme climate scenarios including – geoengineering and influencing people’s lifestyles and dietary habits. 

1. Selecting mitigation targets and financing the efforts in 2020 

In cooperation with: Ecofys
Abstract: The side event reports new research on

• Emission pathways for reaching the 2 °C target
• Effort sharing between developed and developing countries
• Comparable efforts of Annex I countries
• Financing the efforts of developing countries 

1. Sharing the reduction effort between developed and developing countries to limit global warming to 2 °C
2. Sharing developed countries’ post-2012 greenhouse gas emission reductions based on comparable efforts

2. Emission reduction efforts by developed and developing countries: Will they be enough for meeting the two-degree target?

Abstract: Are the developed countries’ current proposals for Copenhagen, including those by the United States, sufficient for reducing emissions to limit global warming to a temperature rise of 2° C?
In this side event, the following questions will be answered: what emission reductions are needed, seen from a scientific viewpoint, what are the countries’ actual pledges, and what are the costs of mitigation for developed and developing countries? We will discuss the influence of including/excluding REDD (the UN programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries), banking hot air on carbon markets and CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) prospectives. In addition, we will examine the effects of early or delayed mitigation actions (US proposal) and the effects of the economic crisis.
Presentations:

1. Pledges and actions  
2. Bridging the gap with REDD 
3. Too hot to handle?

3. Closing the gaps between global assessments and regional realities

• Bridging the gap

• Bridging the gap: Assessing regional costs and benefits of adaptation

4. The cascade of uncertainties in assessing impacts

Abstract: It is increasingly recognised that adaptation to climate change has become unavoidable. Societies, organisations and individuals have been adapting to changing conditions for centuries, but the advent of climate change brings new challenges. The rate of climate change itself and its possible impacts are surrounded by substantial uncertainties. Combined with uncertainties about economic and societal developments, adaptation to climate change requires that policy formulation deals with uncertainties. However, how do you decide what to do and when, and how do you value costs and benefits for the short and the long term? Jeroen van der Sluijs (Utrecht University) will present frameworks for dealing with uncertainties in the decision-making process, and Willem Ligtvoet (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PBL) will present how the uncertainties are being addressed in the Netherlands, by examining long-term adaptation challenges.

Video at vimeo:

• Adaptation policies: Coping with uncertainties

5. What can we do when things get out of hand? Extreme mitigation and adaptation scenarios

Abstract: Recent climate scenarios seem to suggest that emissions may increase faster than foreseen, even in the most pessimistic IPCC scenarios. Unprecedented and very drastic measures might, therefore, be required to mitigate climate change. This session will outline several options for such policies and will go into more detail on one heavily contested option; geoengineering.

Presentation:

• Extreme Climate Change and policy responses

• What can we do when things get out of hand?

6. Meat: How far can governments go in influencing lifestyles?

Abstract: This session will discuss how far governments can go in influencing people’s lifestyles, based on a case study of meat. Current meat consumption patterns in industrialised countries are unsustainable from both a land use and a climate perspective. A substantial reduction in meat consumption, per person, in industrialised countries, therefore, seems inevitable. In addition, developing countries should be prevented from following the same unsustainable pathway. But how far can governments go in influencing diets of individual people? What are appropriate instruments to be used? And what research is still needed to successfully reduce meat consumption?

Video at vimeo:

• Meat- How far can governments go in influencing lifestyles?

6. Successful climate governance after Copenhagen. Who are the agents of change?

Abstract: So far, in many countries, mitigation and adaptation policies have been implemented. However, the degree of success of these policies varies. And if in Copenhagen further emission reductions are decided, new policies are needed that can realise these stricter targets. What are the conditions for success of such policies? Do we need completely new governance approaches, or are present policy instruments sufficient? And which actors can be the drivers of implementation of successful policies? What help do governments need from other actors in society, such as business, civil society and non-governmental organisations?

Video at vimeo:

• Successful climate governance after Copenhagen.

News in Climate Science since IPCC AR4. Are we prepared for the worst?

Abstract: The report  ‘News in Climate Science and Exploring Boundaries’ from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) concludes that the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2007, today, still offers a solid scientific base for climate policy-making. However, there are risks that climate change may happen faster – or may have  more severe impacts – than expected. Therefore, it is recommended to increase climate monitoring efforts, and investigate policy response options for addressing these risks.

• to News in climate science and exploring boundaries

Presentation:

• Impacts  mitigation and stabilisation

List of COP15 related publications

Publications on global scale

• News in climate science and exploring boundaries : A Policy brief on developments since the IPCC AR4 report in 2007  
• Pledges and actions – A scenario analysis of mitigation costs and carbon market impacts for developed and developing countries 
• Sharing the reduction effort to limit global warming to 2 degree C  
• Too hot to handle? The emission surplus in the Copenhagen negotiations  
• Meeting the 2 degree target. From climate objective to emission reduction measures
• Sharing developed countries’ post-2012 greenhouse gas emission reductions based on comparable efforts  
• Balancing the carbon market – Analysing the international carbon market and abatement costs in 2020 for low-concentration targets: policy choices and uncertainties
• Balancing the carbon market: carbon market impacts of developing country emission reduction targets  
• Balancing the carbon market: overview of carbon price estimates
• Financing adaptation in developing countries
• Climate benefits of changing diet
• The importance of three centuries of land-use change for the global and regional terrestrial carbon cycle
• Can biofuels be sustainable by 2020?  
• Oil prices and climate change mitigation  
• Co-benefits of climate policy  
• Exploring comparable post-2012 reduction efforts for Annex I countries

 Publications on national scale