Policy evaluations
Exploration of pathways towards a clean economy by 2050: How to realise a climate-neutral Netherlands
The Netherlands is capable of achieving an 80 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This is possible by implementing a mix of reduced energy demand, use of biomass, carbon capture and storage, and clean electricity generation accompanied by an increased share of electricity in final energy demand. This will require a comprehensive and prolonged process of change and therefore quick action is necessary.
Bridging the Emissions Gap
Cutting emissions by 2020 to a level that could keep a global, 21st century temperature rise under two degrees Celsius is technologically and economically feasible, according to a comprehensive study by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), to which the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency has also contributed.
Climate policy after Kyoto – Analytical insights into key issues in the climate negotiations
Limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels is the objective agreed on in international climate negotiations. Due to upward revisions of greenhouse gas emission projections in emerging economies, such as India, Brazil, Mexico and China, achieving this objective has become more difficult.
Forks in the Road - Alternative routes for international climate policies
Several scenarios are possible for future international climate policies, each with a different role in the climate negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). These scenarios assume policies that are comparable to the current policies, as well as more fragmented and more integrated international climate policies. The various alternative routes have been assessed with respect to their potential consequences. These assessments showed that none of the proposed routes could fully replace the current negotiation process under the UNFCCC, but rather that they could contribute to generating societal support for future climate policies.
Long-term trend in global CO2 emissions; 2011 report
After a 1 percent decline in 2009, global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increased by more than 5 percent in 2010, which is unprecedented in the last two decades. The industrialised countries that ratified the Kyoto Protocol, together with the non-ratifying USA emitted approximately 7.5 percent less CO2 in 2010 than in 1990 and collectively remain on target to meet the original Kyoto Protocol objective of a 5.2 percent reduction. However their efforts are increasingly hidden in the global picture as their share of CO2 emissions has dropped from two-thirds to less than half.
Emissions and targets of greenhouse gases not included in the Emission Trading System 2013-2020
This report evaluates the European Commission’s (EC) proposal to calculate Member States’ targets for emissions not included in the Emission Trading System (ETS). It is concluded that, for the Netherlands, the non-ETS emission caps as proposed by the EC would result in an emission cap of 105 Mt CO2 equivalent by 2020. Emission caps have also been calculated for the years between 2013 and 2020. Non-ETS emission levels by 2020 would be around the calculated ESD cap for 2020. Policies of the current Dutch Government have not been included in this update.
Co-impacts of climate policies on air polluting emissions in the Netherlands
Several indicative climate policy packages for 2020 have been found to result in mainly favourable co-impacts on Dutch air quality. The extent of their contribution to air quality does depend on the specific measures in the climate package. This report from the Dutch Policy Research Programme on Air and Climate provides insight into the co-impacts of climate measures on air quality.
The Emissions Gap Report: Are the Copenhagen Accord Pledges Sufficient to Limit Global Warming to 2 °C or 1.5 °C?
It is estimated that, in order to have a likely chance (over 66%) of limiting global mean temperature increase to 2 °C, annual greenhouse gas emissions need to stay around 44 gigatonnes, by 2020. If all countries fully adhere to the pledges they made in Copenhagen, annual emissions could be reduced from 56 to 49 gigatonnes leaving a gap of around 5 gigatonnes. These are some of the findings in a new report compiled by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), to which the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency has also contributed.
Assessing an IPCC assessment. An analysis of statements on projected regional impacts in the 2007 report
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency has found no errors that would undermine the main conclusions in the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on possible future regional impacts of climate change. However, in some instances the foundations for the summary statements should have been made more transparent. The PBL believes that the IPCC should invest more in quality control in order to prevent mistakes and shortcomings, to the extent possible.
Evaluation of the Copenhagen Accord: Chances and risks for the 2°C climate goal
The Copenhagen Accord has proven beneficial to the efforts of achieving the target of limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius. Since the climate conference was held, countries have pledged to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. These pledges could realise up to 70 per cent of the greenhouse gas reduction that is needed. However, the risk of the actual reductions being less, is substantial. Thus is the conclusion of the report Evaluation of the Copenhagen Accord: Chances and risks for the 2 °C climate goal, by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), conducted at the request of the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM) and the European Commission.
