11 December 2007
Industrialised countries to collectively meet 2010 Kyoto target
In 2010 the total greenhouse gases emissions produced by industrialised countries with a Kyoto target (e.g. the European Union, Japan, Australia and Russia, but not the United States), will probably be about 11% lower than in the base year 1990. If the present trend (2000-2005) continues, the countries with a quantitative emission limitation target for 2010 will collectively meet the 4.1% reduction of total emissions of greenhouse gases as agreed in the Kyoto Protocol. However, individual differences in domestic reductions of countries are large. This is the conclusion of a Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) analysis based on the official submissions of national emission inventories for the 1990-2005 period, from which recent emission trends were extrapolated to the Kyoto target year 2010.
Increase in OECD countries limited; large reduction in Russia and Eastern Europe
The collective reduction of 11% in 2010 compared to the base year (mainly 1990) is due to the limited increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions in OECD countries (Western industrialised countries and Japan) and in particular to the large reduction of about 40% in Russia and Eastern Europe until 1999). Greenhouse gas emissions in the latter countries have, as a result of their economic recovery, started to increase again.
In the 15 European countries that comprised the European Union when the Kyoto Protocol was ratified in 1997, emissions have been almost constant over the last 10 years, decreasing by 1.5% in 2005 relative to 1990. Apart from many other factors, climate and energy policy has contributed to this trend in emissions. Analysis shows that without policy measures, emissions would have been 5 to 10% higher. Japan saw its emissions increase by 6.9% between 1990 and 2005.
United States
The greenhouse gas emissions of the USA, which has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol, have increased 16% since 1990. As this increasing trend continues, the USA will not meet the original target of 6% reduction. The USA has implemented national and also state-level climate policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, for example, increasing energy efficiency, reduction of non-CO2 emissions such as methane and increasing the share of renewable energy e.g. bioethanol.
Few or no purchases of emissions from Russia or Eastern Europe necessary
The ‘Clean Development Mechanism’ (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol is an instrument provided to countries to meet their Kyoto target partly through emission reduction projects in developing countries and fast growing economies, the reduction of which can be accounted for as a national achievement. Examples are renewable energy production (hydropower, wind, biomass energy) and methane recovery and usage from landfills and from gas venting from oil and gas production platforms. Of the OECD countries the European Union and Japan expect to meet their target of 8% and 6%, respectively, without purchases of emissions from Russia or Eastern European countries. The 15 member states of the European Union, for which the EU ratified the Kyoto Protocol as a regional organisation, expect to meet the collective reduction target of 8% for the EU-15, including the expected CDM projects and Joint Implementation (JI) projects that are planned to contribute 2.5% and the carbon storage in forests and soils (‘sinks’), contributing another 0.9% (EEA, 2007). Japan expects to meet its Kyoto target by including 1.6% reduction from CDM projects and another 3.9% from carbon storage in forests and soils. Many of the other OECD countries saw increases in emissions: in Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Switzerland emissions increased by 25% compared to the base year, while in Norway the increase was 9%. Canada and Australia in particular will probably need to purchase large amounts of emission reduction credits through the three so-called ‘flexible mechanisms’ of the Kyoto Protocol: CDM projects, Joint Implementation (JI) projects in Russia or Eastern European countries, or purchase of emissions from other countries.
Completion of Kyoto target with emission reduction in developing countries and fast growing economies: CDM projects
The amount of emissions reductions in the 2800 CDM projects ‘in the pipeline’ of more than 500 megatonnes of CO2-equivalents per year (= million tonnes), almost half of which are located in China, is more than sufficient for the planned purchase of 107.5 megatonnes by the EU-15 countries and 11 megatonnes by Japan, and for meeting the Kyoto targets of the other OECD countries. If we include these other countries, a total of over 400 megatonnes per year from CDM projects is required, so there seems to be no need to purchase unused emissions (‘hot air’) in Russia or the Eastern European countries. If CDM projects in developing countries and fast growing economies are included, the total emission reduction by the group of countries with a Kyoto target may even be as large as 15%.
Climate policy in developing countries and fast growing economies
In several larger developing countries and fast growing economies (China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt and Iran) greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly increasing. However, the emissions per capita are still often much lower than those of traditional industrialised countries. Although developing countries and fast growing economies do not have a quantitative emission target, all countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol have committed themselves to defining and implementing national climate policies aiming at mitigating climate change taking national circumstances into consideration as much as possible. For example, emissions from China have highly increased over the last 15 years, often by more than 10% per year, as a result of a rapid industrialisation and the associated rapid increase of per capita income. However, China has also developed a national climate policy programme to mitigate the growth of emissions. Examples of policy measures are the closure of old, less efficient coal-fired power plants and cement production plants so as to increase the energy efficiency in these industrial sectors.
CDM climate projects
The more than 2800 CDM projects in the pipeline in developing countries and fast growing economies amount to more than 500 megatonnes of CO2-eq. per year. This is equivalent to more than twice the emissions from the Netherlands. These projects have resulted in a further enforcing of the attention of policy makers in developing countries and fast growing economies on climate policy. At present, almost all developing countries and fast growing economies monitor their national greenhouse gas emissions; they are also searching for projects that provide inexpensive options for emission reductions, which, in turn, will also be monitored.
Kyoto Protocol: a small, first step
In 1990 the share of the countries with a Kyoto target was 30% of the global greenhouse gas emissions; in 2005 this share had decreased to about 20%. The Kyoto Protocol represents therefore only a first small step in the mitigation of global emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.
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The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) supports national and international policymakers by analysing the impacts of societal trends and policies on the environment. We provide independent integrated assessments on topics such as sustainable development, energy and climate change, biodiversity, transport, land use and air quality. The MNP acts as the interface between science and policy.
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