Policy measures taken so far by European Union countries to curb their emissions of greenhouse gases fall well short of enabling the EU to meet its obligations under the Kyoto climate change protocol, latest projections show. But additional measures under discussion, if fully implemented, as well as emissions trading or use of other instruments could still ensure that the EU complies with its target.

Policy measures taken so far by European Union countries to curb their emissions of greenhouse gases fall well short of enabling the EU to meet its obligations under the Kyoto climate change protocol, latest projections show. But additional measures under discussion, if fully implemented, as well as emissions trading or use of other instruments could still ensure that the EU complies with its target. 

Under the Kyoto Protocol, the EU is required to cut its combined emissions of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases to an average of 8% below 1990 levels in the years 2008 to 2012.   

A "burden-sharing" agreement between the 15 EU Member States has imposed legally binding limits on how much each can emit within this overall target (see Annex for details).   

The latest projections provided by Member States show that existing policies and measures – those already being implemented at domestic or European level - will yield a total EU emissions cut of 4.7% by 2010. This is 3.3 percentage points short of the Kyoto requirement (see Annex).   

"Existing measures will not be sufficient for the EU to reach its Kyoto target," concludes a report on the projections prepared by the European Environment Agency (EEA) and its European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change.   

The accuracy of the projections is subject to uncertainties over the methodologies used and whether existing or planned measures will be fully implemented. This is particularly the case for Germany.   

Most of the projected 4.7% decrease from existing measures would be due to Germany, but also Sweden and the UK, cutting emissions by more than they are required to do under the burden-sharing deal – something which cannot be taken for granted.   

If these three countries merely met their burden-sharing targets instead of "over-cutting", the overall EU emissions decrease would be minimal at only around 0.6%.   

Based on policies and measures implemented so far, all of the 12 other Member States are projected to have emissions in 2010 above their burden-sharing targets.   

The projected exceedances range from 3.4 percentage points for Denmark up to 33.3 percentage points for Spain (see Annex for details).   

In practice, the EU and most Member States are planning additional policies and measures to limit emissions. Assuming that all of those under discussion will be fully implemented and will have the effects expected of them, the total EU emissions cut projected is 12.4% - well above the 8% decrease required by Kyoto (see Annex).   

Even under this "additional measures" scenario, however, at least five Member States – Austria, Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Spain – would still exceed their burden-sharing limits. (Greece, Luxembourg, Portugal and Sweden have yet to specify emissions savings from any additional policies and measures they are considering).   

These exceedances would be more than compensated by "over-cutting" of emissions by Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy and the UK.   

However, such over-achievement can, again, not be assumed since it is not required. If these six countries only achieved their targets without doing more, the total EU emissions cut would be 6.2% - still leaving a shortfall of 1.8 percentage points (see Annex for details).   

Besides implementing policies and measures, countries can also use some or all of the Protocol's mechanisms – emissions trading, joint implementation and the clean development mechanism – to meet their emissions targets. A further option is to take account of sequestration of carbon by forests, soils and agriculture. An internal EU emissions trading scheme will be discussed by EU environment ministers at their Council meeting on 9-10 December.   

Little information is available yet on the extent to which EU Member States intend to make use of these possibilities to help meet their emissions targets, however.   

Consequently the report, Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe, does not assess the contribution that these options could make to EU compliance with the Kyoto target.   

As reported by the EEA in April, EU greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions fell by 3.5% between 1990 and 2000, the latest year for which complete data are available.   

The latest projections show that without additional measures, possibly combined with use of the Kyoto mechanisms and/or carbon sequestration, further reductions up to 2010 will be relatively small.   

Transport is the fastest-growing source of EU GHG emissions, largely because of rapid increases in road transport of both passengers and freight.   

While most sectors in the EU cut their GHG emissions between 1990 and 2000, those from transport rose by nearly 20%. Based on existing measures, this increase is projected to reach 28% by 2010.   

By contrast,   

• EU GHG emissions from energy supply and use (excluding transport) are projected to be 16% below 1990 levels in 2010 on the basis of existing measures and 20% lower with additional measures. However, EU targets for increasing renewable energy and combined heat and power (CHP) are unlikely to be met with existing measures alone.   
• Based on existing measures, EU GHG emissions from agriculture are projected to fall to 7% below 1990 levels in 2010. This would be due to continuing reform of the Common Agricultural Policy and implementation of the EU nitrates directive, resulting in reductions in fertiliser use and the number of cattle. 
• EU GHG emissions from the waste sector are projected to decrease by about 60% between 1990 and 2010 on the basis of both existing and additional measures. This cut would be mainly due to implementation of the EU directive on landfilling of waste.    

The report shows that six countries in central and eastern Europe that are expected to join the EU in 2004 are on track to meet their own Kyoto commitments with existing policies and measures alone, according to the most recent information they have provided. These are the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Poland and the Slovak Republic.   

Hungary and Poland are required to reduce their emissions by 6% while the others have the same -8% target as the EU.