Four futures for energy markets and climate change
The next decades, global reserves of oil and natural gas will likely be sufficient to meet the growing demand. Therefore, there is no need to worry about a looming depletion of natural energy resources. The use of fossil energy carriers will, however, affect climate because of the emissions of greenhouse gasses. In order to mitigate global increases of temperature, emissions of greenhouse gasses should be reduced. Developing countries should contribute to that effort. On the one hand they will be major emitters in the near future, on the other hand they have the low-cost abatement options.
These are the main conclusions of a study by CPB and MNP-RIVM in which they explore possible energy futures and consequences for climate change. Similar to IPCC-SRES four scenarios are developed. However, in this study other uncertainties are stressed and the focus is on Europe in 2040.
|Author(s)||Johannes Bollen, Ton Manders, Machiel Mulder|