Differentiation of countries'future commitments in a post-2012 climate regime: an assessment of the "South-North dialogue" proposal
The 'South–North Dialogue Proposal' outlines an approach for an 'equitable' differentiation of post-2012 commitments. An analysis of the proposal shows that for the stringent stabilisation targets many developing countries will have to take on quantitative mitigation obligations by 2030, even when the Annex I countries adopt ambitious mitigation commitments far beyond the Kyoto obligations. A 'political willingness' scenario, based on what countries might be willing to do, will probably not suffice to limit warming of the earth’s atmosphere under 2 degrees C.
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Abstract
The “South–North Dialogue” Proposal, developed by researchers from developing and industrialised countries, outlined equitable approaches to mitigation. These approaches were based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate, and include deep cuts in industrialised (Annex I) countries and differentiated mitigation commitments for developing countries. This paper quantitatively analyses the implications of the proposal for countries’ emissions and costs. The analysis focuses on a “political willingness” scenario and four stabilisation scenarios. The analysis shows that stringent stabilisation targets imply that many developing countries would have to take on quantitative mitigation obligations by 2030, even when the Annex I countries take on ambitious mitigation commitments far beyond the Kyoto obligations. The “political willingness scenario” will probably not suffice to limit a warming of the Earth's atmosphere to below 2 °C.
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| Author(s) | Elzen MGJ den ; Hoehne N ; Brouns B ; Winkler H ; Ott HE |
| Publication date | 19-07-2007 |
| Publication | Environ Sci Policy 2007; 10(3):185-203 |
