Species distribution modelling is a useful tool for extracting the maximum amount of information from biological collections and floristic inventories. However, in many tropical regions records are only available from a small number of sites. This can limit the application of predictive modelling, particularly in the case of rare and endangered species.We aim to address this problem by developing a methodology for defining and mapping species pools associated with climatic variables in order to investigate potential species turnover and regional species loss under climate change scenarios combined with anthropogenic disturbance.The main conclusion is that climatically associated species pools can be derived from floristic inventory data available for tropical regions using methods based on multivariate analysis even when data limitations prevent effective application of individual species modelling. Potential consequences of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the species diversity of montane tropical forests in our study region are clearly demonstrated by the method.