Liberalisation of agricultural production and trade without specific biodiversity policy does not reduce the rate of loss of terrestrial biodiversity loss. In particular, the enhanced growth of agricultural areas outside the current OECD countries is an important factor.

Slightly less steep deterioration of worldwide biodiversity by 2030

The figure shows a slightly less steep deterioration of worldwide biodiversity by 2030, compared to the baseline. (The deterioration of terrestrial biodiversity in the baseline remains at least as steep as it has been over the past decades.) This slight improvement in worldwide biodiversity reflects a small shrinkage of OECD agricultural area, resulting from the global policy package. However, even this is probably an overestimation. An increase in natural areas in OECD countries typically leads to an improvement in biodiversity but only after a couple of decades, while the decrease elsewhere has immediate effect. By 2050, the difference between the policy packages and the baseline has become negligible. 

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