OECD Environmental Outlook: Impact of these measures on GDP growth
The aggregate economic cost of implementing the global participation policy package would be relatively low. On average, it is expected to reduce global GDP growth by about 0.02% per year up to 2030. This would mean a 1.2% loss in gross GDP up to 2030. In other words, instead of realising the projected 98.5% in growth under the Baseline, the growth in GDP would be 97.3% between 2005 and 2030. These calculations have taken into account the effect of measures on trade and agriculture; mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions; and air pollution.
Losses might be counter-balanced to some extent
In reality, these losses might be counter-balanced to some extent by the social welfare improvements arising from the global participation policy package, such as improved environmental and health conditions. However, these effects were not monetetized in the analyses.
