Modeling Energy and Development: An Evaluation of Models and Concepts
In this study, we found that the results of the IPCC/SRES global energy models for Asia are consistent with general “energy development” theories such as the environmental Kuznets curve and the energy ladder. Although some of the driving forces behind these concepts are already included in these models, several improvements, for example, on traditional fuel use, electrification, structural change, income distribution, the informal economy, and a feedback of climate change on the economy can increase their credibility for changes in the energy systems of developing countries.
Most global energy models are developed by institutes from developed countries, focusing primarily on issues that are important in industrialized countries. Evaluation of the results for Asia of the IPCC/SRES models shows that broad concepts of energy and development, the energy ladder and the environmental Kuznets curve, can be observed in the results of the models. However, improvements can be made in modeling the issues that underlie these concepts, like traditional fuels, electrification, economic structural change, income distribution, and informal economies. Given the rapidly growing importance of energy trajectories of developing countries for global sustainability, the challenge for the future is to develop energy models that include all these aspects of energy and development.
|Author(s)||Ruijven B van , Urban F, Benders RMJ, Moll HC, Sluijs JP van der, Vries B de, Vuuren DP van|
|Publication||World Development, Volume 36, Issue 12: 2801-2821|