OECD Environmental Outlook: The pattern across issues and regions
Trade-offs
Next to synergies, trade-offs are real and need further exploration. One example featuring in this table is the connection between trade liberalisation, agricultural technology and protection of biodiversity. A possible implication is that policies on agricultural technology and biodiversity protection form a necessary ingredient for liberalisation of agricultural production and trade.
Also, there is the connection between improving access to better sanitation worldwide and waste water treatment that has to keep up with expanding connections to public sewerage. Failure to do so will result in steep increases in the loading of pollutants on ecosystems and in public health risks. In relation to this, a certain proportion of investments in better sanitation should be earmarked – or added – in order to boost waste water treatment, as well.
Goals and targets
Environmental goal-setting needs to be ambitious. In fact, relative to a benchmark of climate stabilisation at global mean temperatures not much more than two degrees Celsius, all of the broad policy packages fall short. But the more ambitious 450 ppm multigas stabilisation case does go in this direction.
The difference between the issues also highlights a need for policies that address some issues head on. For example, without explicit protection, biodiversity will keep on deteriorating at the current rate or even faster. Also, without policies targeted at agricultural water use, problems of water stress will only become more serious.
Timing
Inertia is a factor to be reckoned with. It is the common factor that makes the rows in Table 1.2 look so similar, even between the baseline and the global policy package. When focusing on impact (such as climate change) rather than pressure (such as emissions) the slowest element in the chain is highlighted. At the end of the chain all delays accumulate: from the time needed for education, replacement of capital stock and year after year improvements in resource efficiencies, to the longevity of some human-induced changes to the environment.
The delay between action and result surely is a a political handicap. It is also a key reason to prioritise those actions that deal with durable infrastructure and capital goods, such as city layout, power plants or the fishing fleet, and seize opportunities arising through the current dynamic development of the BRIC economies.
