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Dutch National Energy Outlook (NEV) 2015

Report | 17-12-2015

Dutch energy supply is at a tipping point. The share of renewable energy is expected to grow at an accelerated pace, up to 2023; in part due to the efforts of those involved in the Energy Agreement. Energy saving will also increase, up to 2020. And, although energy use will continue to decline, it will do so at a decreasing pace. After 2020, the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and air polluting substances will slow down. Further progress towards a clean and reliable energy system in the long term, therefore, requires new policy input. A still to be formulated long-term perspective on climate and energy policy could push this in the right direction.

Impact Energy Agreement becoming clearer

Insight into the impact of the measures that were agreed on in the Energy Agreement in 2013 has increased. The current NEV’s estimation of this impact is more precise than in last year’s edition. Aspirations to save an additional 100 petajoules in energy by 2020 are still out of reach. However, the European energy saving target for the Netherlands – 482 petajoules over the 2014–2020 period – will be achieved.

Energy use will decrease and production will become more sustainable

Energy use in the Netherlands has been declining since 2004. It is expected to continue to do so, also in the future, albeit to a lesser degree; the decrease will take place particularly with respect to buildings and less in relation to traffic, industry or horticulture.

The share of renewable energy in power generation is projected to increase substantially; from 10% in 2014 to over one third in 2020. Compared to this, the share of renewable energy in heat supply is increasing less rapidly, but the attention paid to making this part of the energy supply more sustainable is increasing. The use of natural gas in heat supply (in the built environment, industry and horticulture) will decrease from 80% in 2013 to around 70% by 2030.

Author(s)Project coordination Koen Schoots (ECN) and Pieter Hammingh (PBL)
Report no.2325
Publication date17-12-2015