Scenarios
The objective of the IMAGE 2.4 model is to explore the long-term dynamics of global environmental change, following from human development activities. This requires an coherent image of how the world system could evolve. Future greenhouse gas emissions, for instance, are the result of complex interacting demographic, techno-economic, socio-cultural and political forces. Obviously, all of these key driving forces are inherently uncertain and increasingly uncertain as the time horizon moves into the future. The use of scenarios is a widely accepted approach for exploring the bandwidth of future developments and the sensitivity of the outcome to alternative, yet internally consistent, sets of assumptions. Scenarios are thus images of how the future might unfold, and thus an appropriate tool for analysing how driving forces may influence future emissions and in assessing the associated uncertainties.
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