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Energy and Climate Change

Least-cost electrification systems under SSP2 baseline scenario with universal electricity access, 2030

Infographic | 22-05-2017

In the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2), middle-of-the-road, scenario, 500 million people are projected to not have access to electricity in 2030, 90% of whom live in rural areas. The preferred electrification system for connecting those people depends highly on their level of electricity consumption.

  • Very low incomes only allow the use of very low-power appliances, such as basic lighting and mobile phone charging (Tier 1).
  • Higher incomes could potentially also allow the use of low (Tier 2) or medium (Tier 3) power appliances, including televisions, fans, refrigerators and rice cookers.

In sparsely populated remote rural areas with low electricity demand, mini-grids or stand-alone systems, are generally more cost effective. Extending the central grid, which is relatively expensive, is more cost effective in areas close to the central grid, especially when electricity demand is high.

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