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Energy and Climate Change

The relationship between emission pathways, temperature change, and the probability of keeping temperature change below 1.5 °C, 2005 – 2100

Infographic | 07-11-2017

The figure shows the median value for each category in the IPCC AR5 WGIII scenario database for CO2 emissions (panel a), the increase in global mean temperature (panel b) and the probability of staying below 1.5 °C (panel c) for all scenarios included in the AR5 WGIII Scenario database (Clarke et al., 2014; Krey et al., 2014).

Source data

Clarke L, Jiang K, Akimoto K, Babiker M, Blanford G, Fisher Vanden K, Hourcade J, Krey V, Kriegler E, Löschel A, McCollum D, Paltsev S, Rose S, Shukla PR, Tavoni M, Van der Zwaan B and Van Vuuren DP. (2014). Assessing Transformation Pathways. in Edenhofer O, Pichs-Madruga R, Sokona Y, Farahani E, Kadner S, Seyboth K, Adler A, Baum I, Brunner S, Eickemeier P, Kriemann B, Savolainen J, Schlömer S, von Stechow C, Zwickel T, Minx JC (eds.), Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (UK).

Krey V, Masera O, Blanford G, Bruckner T, Cooke R, Fisher-Vanden K, Haberl H, Hertwich EG, Kriegler E, Mueller D, Paltsev S, Price L, Schlömer S, Ürge-Vorsatz D, Van Vuuren DP and Zwickel T. (2014). Annex II: Metrics & Methodology. in Edenhofer O, Pichs-Madruga R, Sokona Y, Farahani E, Minx JC, Kadner S, Seyboth K, Adler A, Baum I, Brunner S, Eickemeier P, Kriemann B, Salvolainen J, Schlömer S, Stechow Cv and Zwickel T (eds.), Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (UK) and New York (NY).

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