Background report to the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030. Overviews, details, and methodology of model-based analysis

18-04-2008 | Publication

International environmental policy has a chance of succeeding if Brazil, Russia, India and China participate, and if swift action is taken. Then, serious climate policy will be affordable and feasible. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and OECD have assessed a package of policy measures in the area of free trade, climate, water and air. These analyses form the basis of the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030.

Overviews, Details, and Methodology of Model-Based Analysis

This background report provides overviews and details of the model-based analyses for the Outlook. The global analyses have been conducted for 24 regions. They cover:

  • climate change;
  • urban air pollution and related health impacts;
  • nutrient loading to the aquatic environment by agriculture and by trends in sanitation and sewerage;
  • terrestrial biodiversity.

A baseline scenario has been developed, as well as three policy packages. Most of the model-based analyses for the Environmental Outlook include a retrospect to 1970 and a look forward up to 2050. This enables an assessment of the cost of policy inaction and of the delaying of such action.

This background report compares the impacts of the baseline for the various regions of the world. It also assesses the impact of uncertainties in the modelling for the key messages of the Environmental Outlook.