Over the last decade transport has been strongest growing sector in terms of worldwide energy demand. As a result, proper modelling of transport has become more important in models describing global climate change. RIVM has developed the energy model TIMER as part of the global integrated assessment model, IMAGE (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to study long-term energy scenarios, related environmental problems and available options for mitigation (up to 2100).
In the research project described, the aim was to find a modelling approach and identify determinants of transport energy demand to improve the projections of TIMER, focusing on passenger transport. Global transport models were compared by means of a literature study. The literature that could be reviewed for this project focused mainly on passenger transport in OECD countries. In addition, four global transport models were studied - i.e. two models from the World Energy Council, one from the International Energy Agency, and a model described by Schafer and Victor. On the basis of this review, it became clear that the best improvements could be achieved in transport modelling in the context of TIMER by adopting an updated version of the transport model by Schafer and Victor. Such a model would take into account the determinants, technology, spatial organisation (population density), prices and possible demographic factors other than population size (e.g. age).