Emissions and targets of greenhouse gases not included in the Emission Trading System 2013-2020

08-06-2011 | Publication

This report evaluates the European Commission’s (EC) proposal  to calculate Member States’ targets for emissions not included in the Emission Trading System (ETS). It is concluded that, for the Netherlands, the non-ETS emission caps as proposed by the EC would result in an emission cap of 105 Mt CO2 equivalent by 2020. Emission caps have also been calculated for the years between 2013 and 2020. Non-ETS emission levels by 2020 would be around the calculated ESD cap for 2020. Policies of the current Dutch Government have not been included in this update.

This report evaluates the European Commission’s (EC) proposal to calculate Member States’ targets for emissions not included in the Emission Trading System (ETS) (as announced in the so-called Effort Sharing Decision). The calculation procedures and data sources proposed by the EC have been used for calculating non-ETS emission targets for the Netherlands, for the years from 2013 to 2020. In order to compare results, an alternative approach also was introduced and evaluated. In this approach more transparent data sources were used. Furthermore, the report updates the emission forecast of non-ETS emission levels in the Netherlands, for 2020, and evaluates the consequences of excluding uncertainties related to monitoring from the (updated) emission forecast.

Effort Sharing Decision targets according to the European Commission’s proposal are less stringent than the alternative

It is concluded that, for the Netherlands, the non-ETS emission caps as proposed by the EC would result in an emission cap of 105 Mt CO2 equivalent by 2020. This is higher than in the alternative approach, which would result in a cap of 103 Mt CO2 equivalents. The difference is explained by the different data sources that were used. A drawback of the data sources used in the EC proposal is the lack of transparency of part of the data, which resulted in an additional uncertainty as not all issues could be verified. However, other Member States may not have similar data sources available, in case the EC decides to adopt the alternative approach. The calculated emission caps are to be considered as estimates based on the most recent (but sometimes uncertain) statistics. The EC will determine the definite caps by the end of 2012.

Non-ETS emission levels estimated to be around ESD cap by 2020

Based on a 2010 forecast, and including both an updated division of emissions into ETS and non-ETS emissions and a revised methodology for calculating nitrous oxide emissions, we estimate that non-ETS emissions in the Netherlands would be 104 Mt CO2 equivalents by 2020, with an uncertainty range of between 96 and 112 Mt CO2 equivalents. It is our conclusion that non-ETS emission levels by 2020 would be around the calculated ESD caps. New policies by the current Dutch Government have not been included in this update.

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