Results are presented of the project 'reference projection for energy and greenhouse gases' carried out by RIVM and ECN for the Ministries of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment, and of Economic Affairs. The reference projection considers emission of greenhouse gases in the Netherlands in 2010. E
Emission sources and trends up to 2000 were analysed, and expected developments with respect to economic growth and energy supply for the period 2001-2010 updated. This led to new estimates for the greenhouse gas emissions in 2010. Differences with previous scenario studies were analysed, and the effects of both announced and implemented policy measures assessed. Emissions of CO2 were analysed separately from other greenhouse gases. The total expected greenhouse gas emissions for the Netherlands in 2010 are concluded to be 225 Mton CO2 equivalent, which represents a near stabilisation for 2000 as the net result of a 12 Mton increase in CO2 emissions and a 9 Mton decrease in other greenhouse gases.
The expected development of domestic emissions appears favourable with respect to the current policy goal: an emission target stated in the Kyoto agreement of -6 % in relation to the 1990/1995 level and the realisation of half the emission reductions through domestic (inland) measures. The uncertainty in total annual CO2 -equivalent emissions in 2010 is estimated at 14 Mton (95% confidence interval) due to identified uncertain future societal developments and possible future improvements in greenhouse gas emission inventories.
These results will be used to evaluate the current progress with respect to the national climate change policy in the Netherlands, described in "The Netherlands' Climate Policy Implementation Plan, Part I: inland measures"(June 1999).