Uncertainty in the Netherlands' greenhouse gas emissions inventory Estimation of the uncertainty about annual data and trend scenarios, using the IPCC Tier 1 approach

18-08-2009 | Publication

The Netherlands signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and, therefore, is bound to report its greenhouse gas emissions, on an annual basis in a National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NIR). Within the framework of this NIR, an annual uncertainty assessment is made. This report documents uncertainty estimates in the assessment performed for the NIR 2006 and (minor) updates made in the later submissions (2007 and 2008).

IPCC Tier-1: workable method for greenhouse gas emissions uncertainty estimates

Uncertainty estimates were made using the simplified Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 uncertainty analysis following the IPCC Good practice Guidance. In addition, assumptions and results of two more comprehensive analyses are presented in this report, based on IPCC Tier 2 Monte Carlo. These Tier 1 and Tier 2 assessments were used for identifying areas for improvement within the emissions inventory. Both studies showed that Tier 2 and Tier 1 uncertainty analyses, using similar underlying uncertainty data, resulted in similar magnitudes of overall uncertainty calculations, both for level and trend uncertainty. Therefore, using Tier 1 as the main method for uncertainty analysis in the NIR seemed justified, all the more because it is unlikely that uncertainties will change quickly over the years.

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