This report by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 25 major emitting countries and regions up to 2030 under currently implemented policies. The report concludes that only 11 out of the 25 countries are on track to meet their latest NDC targets. This number remains unchanged compared to our 2021 update. Eight are on track to also meet their updated NDC targets. 14 countries are not on track to meet their updated targets, and two of the 25 countries have not submitted an NDC update.
Emissions remain above 2019 levels in most countries analysed
Emissions under current policies in the group of countries analysed are projected to reach 36.2-41.8 GtCO2e by 2030, which corresponds to a change between -4% and +11% compared to 2019, pre-pandemic levels. This finding suggests that countries remain far off track to meet the collective goals of the Paris Agreement, which require emissions to be 43% below 2019 levels by 2030.
Most countries are not on track to meet their latest NDC targets
Eleven out of the 25 countries are on track to meet their latest NDC targets. This number remains unchanged compared to our 2021 update report. However, there are some national differences. Brazil was on track to meet its targets but is now off track due to an increase in land use emission projections. Indonesia was on track to meet its unconditional NDC target but is now set to miss it due to an increase in land-use historical emissions. Mexico was close to meet its target and now is well on track due to revision in emission inventories. Egypt did not have a quantifiable target in our 2021 report and is now on track to meet its NDC target.
The report includes detailed country fact sheets for all 25 countries, each providing information about climate policy developments, emission projections, NDC descriptions, key mitigation policies and key GHG indicators.