Multi-dimensional Scenario Making. Four futures to help policy makers embrace uncertainty in the fields of urbanisation and transport in the Netherlands

09-04-2019 | Publication

In the fields of urban development, infrastructure and transport, strategic policy makers and long-term planners face many uncertainties with regard to the future. To help strategic policy makers deal with so-called deep uncertainty we have developed four scenarios about the future of Dutch urban regions and their transport infrastructure.

Eleven key uncertainties, four possible futures

Each of the four scenarios is organised around a distinct set of tensions, dilemmas and conflicts that help policy makers, planners and other actors in the fields of urban development, infrastructure and transport to anticipate a variety of relevant long-term developments and explore a range of different policy and planning options. In order to construct the scenarios we developed a ‘mixing console’ containing an ‘equaliser’ corresponding to eleven key uncertainties regarding who is in control (governance), the attitude towards people, planet and profit (sustainability) and social and cultural characteristics of our society (including the attitude towards technology). By choosing, discussing and testing different settings, four possible futures were constructed, each with a fitting name to summarise its character: Bubble City, State of Green, Market Place and Our Neighbourhood.

Robocar and Urban Space Evolution

This chapter is part of Robocar and Urban Space Evolution: City changes in the age of autonomous cars. This publication is one of the results of a symposium organized on the 13th of September 2018 by the Urban Design Section at the Faculty of Architecture and the Built Environment of TU Delft. The main topic of the symposium was the possibility of automated mobility (self-driving cars) significantly changing cities. The symposium aimed to contribute to a more inclusive debate, by looking at automated mobility beyond the market-oriented discourse, in the context of sustainability, and the future of urban planning and design.

Ruimtelijke Verkenning 2019

This book chapter was written as part of the PBL research project Oefenen met de toekomst (Ruimtelijke Verkenning 2019 (in Dutch)). The ‘mixing console’ mentioned above represents preliminary ‘equaliser’ settings. The final settings can be found here.