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The Copenhagen Accord: abatement costs and carbon prices resulting from the submissions

As part of the Copenhagen Accord, individual countries have submitted greenhouse gas reduction proposals for the year 2020. This paper analyses the implications for emission reductions, the carbon…

Holocene carbon emissions as a result of anthropogenic land cover change

Humans have altered the Earth’s land surface since the Paleolithic mainly by clearing woody vegetation first to improve hunting and gathering opportunities, and later to provide agricultural cropland…

Quantitative analysis of patterns of vulnerability to global environmental change

The impacts of global change, including environmental changes, pose increasing risks for people around the globe. In this context, we developed and applied a methodology to quantitatively assess the…

The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with no mitigation…

Uncertainty and risk in climate projections for the 21st century

There are by now many studies on estimation of uncertainty of climate system properties and model parameters but still only few on probabilistic climate projections. Moreover, most of these studies…

The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets

The relationship between long-term climate goals and short/medium-term emission targets forms crucial information for the design of international climate policy. Since IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report…

Impact of future land use and land cover changes on atmospheric chemistry‐climate interactions

To demonstrate potential future consequences of land cover and land use changes beyond those for physical climate and the carbon cycle, we present an analysis of large-scale impacts of land cover and…

The Emissions Gap Report: Are the Copenhagen Accord Pledges Sufficient to Limit Global Warming to 2 °C or 1.5 °C?

It is estimated that, in order to have a likely chance (over 66%) of limiting global mean temperature increase to 2 °C, annual greenhouse gas emissions need to stay around 44 gigatonnes, by 2020. If…

Assessing 20th century climate–vegetation feedbacks of land-use change and natural vegetation dynamics

This study describes the coupling of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), Lund–Potsdam–Jena Model for managed land (LPJmL), with the general circulation model (GCM), Simplified…

A quantitative minimax regret approach to climate change: Does discounting still matter?

Integrated assessment models have been widely used to inform policymakers about attractive climate response strategies. An important application of integrated assessment models is cost-benefit…