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Climate researcher wins wager with climate sceptic

Newsitem | 22-01-2015

Late 2009, in the run-up to the international climate conference in Copenhagen, PBL climate researcher Bart Strengers had an online discussion with climate sceptic Hans Labohm on the website of the Dutch news station NOS (in Dutch). This discussion, which was later also published as a PBL report, ended in a wager. Strengers wagered that the mean global temperature over the 2010–2014 period would be higher than the mean over 2000 to 2009. Hans Labohm believed there would be no warming and perhaps even a cooling; for example due to reduced solar activity.

At the request of Labohm, it was decided to use the UAH satellite temperature data set on the lower troposphere (TLT) (roughly the lowest 5 km of the atmosphere). These data sets are compiled by the University of Alabama in Huntsville. Satellites are used to measure radiation in the atmosphere, after which the temperature of the various layers of the atmosphere is derived using a complex algorithm.

According to the UAH today, temperatures appear to have been an average 0.1 °C warmer over the past five years than over the 10 years before that. Thus, Strengers has won the wager. The stakes: a good bottle of wine.

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The UAH temperature series since 1979 (no satellites were available on the period before then). The green lines represent the mean over periods of 10 years. The one on the far right is the mean over the 2010–2014 period.

UAH satellite data series shows the greatest warming

Precisely these UAH data, incidentally, show by far the most warming. The 4 other main global temperature series also show warming over the last 5 years, but one that is markedly lower (between 0.03 and 0.05 °C).

Contribution by factors of cooling and warming.

Strengers indicated at the time that 'in light of the scientific uncertainties, I may lose, but this is not likely to happen'. He gave four reasons why a possible reduction in warming, or even a cooling could occur. Bold indicates that the related reason more or less became a reality over the past 5 years. 

  • a continued (relatively) low solar activity;
  • a relatively high heat absorption by the (deep) oceans;
  • a period of cooling due to incidental variations in the climate;
  • lower climate sensitivity than expected.

In addition, Strengers gave three reasons why he nevertheless expected to win:

  • a further increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere;
  • the ‘best-estimate’ by the IPCC is that of a warming of around 0.2 °C per decade;
  • the chances of overestimating climate sensitivity are smaller than those of underestimation.

The sum of all factors, thus, has led to warming.

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