Anticipating futures through models: the rise of Integrated Assessment Modelling in the climate science-policy interface since 1970
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have gained a prominent role in the climate science-policy interface. The article reconstructs the evolution of IAMs and their changing role in this interface…
Variability in historical emissions trends suggests a need for a wide range of global scenarios and regional analyses
Long-term developments in carbon dioxide emissions have tracked the middle of projected emission scenario ranges over the past three decades. If this tendency continues, it seems increasingly less…
Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5–2°C
Limiting warming to well below 2°C requires rapid and complete decarbonisation of energy systems. We compare economy-wide modelling of 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios with sector-focused analyses of four…
Projected material requirements for the global electricity infrastructure – generation, transmission and storage
We analyse how the global material stocks and flows related to the electricity sector may develop towards 2050. We focus on three electricity sub-systems, being generation, transmission and storage…
Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade
Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate…
Improving Climate Change Mitigation Analysis: A Framework for Examining Feasibility
Limiting global warming to 2°C or less compared with pre-industrial temperatures will require unprecedented rates of decarbonization globally. The scale and scope of transformational change required…
Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis
The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH 4 ) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate…
The role of residential rooftop photovoltaic in long-term energy and climate scenarios
The use of solar photovoltaic has strongly increased in the last decade. A significant part of this growth comes from home owners installing rooftop photovoltaic. Despite this key role, most long-term…
Future projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe
Projections of future changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) are of increasing importance to inform policy and decision-making on options for conservation and sustainable use of BES…
Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios
International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for large and rapid reductions of fossil fuel CO 2 emissions worldwide, including nearly complete decarbonization of the electric power…
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