Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework
We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the…
Global and regional abatement costs of INDCs and of enhanced action to levels well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C
Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to keep the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Current climate action plans would deliver half the…
Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives
Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic…
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm
This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) storyline, a development…
Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the 2°C target
More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical…
Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios
In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution…
Long-term model-based projections of energy use and CO2 emissions from the global steel and cement industries
This paper presents a global simulation-model for the steel and cement industries. The model covers the full modelling chain from economic activity, to materials consumption, trade, technology choice…
Greenhouse gas mitigation potentials in the livestock sector
The global livestock sector supports about 1.3 billion producers and retailers, and contributes 40–50% of agricultural GDP. We estimated that between 1995 and 2005, the livestock sector was…
Negative global phosphorus budgets challenge sustainable intensification of grasslands
Except for grassland soils in some northwestern European countries, grassland soils in most of the world have been exhausted over recent decades, particularly by exporting more phosphorus that is…
This study, commissioned by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), offers an assessment of the effect of bioenergy on greenhouse gas emissions. It combines estimates of supply-chain…
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