Current global development scenarios appear to fall short in halting biodiversity loss

Future projections of global environmental change reveal continuing biodiversity loss between now and 2050. This is the conclusion of a scenario analysis with PBL's global biodiversity model GLOBIO, published in Global Change Biology, November 4.

The authors projected terrestrial biodiversity intactness to 2050 according to changes in the environment (climate, land use, nitrogen deposition, infrastructure) corresponding with a set of recently developed socio-economic development scenarios.

They found continuing future biodiversity losses even in the so-called sustainability scenario, which is characterized by limited global warming (below 2o C) and reduced demands for land.

These results indicate that more ambitious measures are needed for halting or reversing the decline of terrestrial biodiversity.


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