For its European studies, PBL has co-developed the BioScore model to conduct biodiversity impact analysis and  to assess the impacts of policy measures on biodiversity in Europe. This model contains dose-effect relationships per species, and is thus in keeping with the — in part, also species-based — EU Birds and Habitats Directives.

Bioscore 2

BioScore 2.0 supports the analysis of potential impacts of future changes in human-induced pressures on European terrestrial biodiversity mammals, vascular plants, breeding birds and butterflies). Compared to the previous version, BioScore 2.0 is based on improved species monitoring data and improved response relationships to describe species’ probability of occurrence in relation to the environmental factors of concern.

The model is based on large databases on species occurrences in Europe. The relationship between species observations and pressures is calculated through statistical analysis. By using output of models on future changes in pressures, BioScore 2.0 can used to calculate changes in species occurrences. In this way BioScore 2.0 can be used for assessing policy plans or scenarios on the achievement of European biodiversity goals and on impacts of climate change. It models changes in both species abundance and habitat quality. This is of interest to policymakers and scientists.

An important application of BioScore 2.0 is the Netherlands Nature Assessment (Nature Outlook) of 2016. The Nature Outlook is produced every four years. It provides perspectives for nature and policy options for the next 30-40 years. Until now these assessments were restricted to the Netherlands. However, as national nature policy is increasingly decided upon at EU level, the Dutch government has requested PBL to expand the study area to cover the whole of EU28.


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