PBL Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency has published the guidance document Building scenarios for environmental, nature and spatial planning policy, in addition to a guidance document on the use of these scenarios. This guidance document gives an overview of the successive steps that can be taken in creating scenarios, the choices to be made during each step and the possibilities and limitations involved in those choices. The document is based on the long and rich experience of PBL in building scenarios at national, local, European and global levels.
Key steps in building scenarios
The guidance document leads the readers through the successive phases of a scenario project. For each phase, the document also discusses the choices that can be made as well as their possibilities and limitations.
- Preparation phase: outline scenario project, define deliverables, selects methods, and organise scenario project
- Implementation phase – developing scenario components: construct a baseline scenario, develop contextual scenarios, develop policy scenarios, make additional choices, and derive key messages
- Implementation phase – applying methods: organise stakeholder participation, write essays, produce particular designs, carry out model calculations and combine and integrate methods
- Completion phase: record the outcomes, account for the methodology, and disseminate the results
Useful for various target groups
The guidance document primarily focuses on researchers working on local, national, European and/or global levels. The document is also interesting for managers and policymakers who are planning to request or commission a scenario study.