Calibration and Validation of the Land Use Scanner allocation algorithms

20-08-2009 | Publication

The Land Use Scanner is a spatial model that simulates future land use. Since its initial development in 1997, it has been applied in a large number of policy-related research projects.

In 2005, a completely revised version became available that allows land use to be modelled at a finer 100 meters resolution. This new version also offers the possibility to model homogenous cells (containing only one type of land use) in addition to the heterogeneous cells that were already available in the previous, coarser version. Each approach uses its own algorithm to allocate land-use types to individual cells. This report describes both algorithms and assesses their spatial allocation performance.

The two model algorithms are calibrated using multinomial logistic regression and validated by applying the calibrated suitability definition in a subsequent time period. The validation indicates that both model algorithms provide sensible spatial patterns. In fact, the two different modelling approaches produce very comparable results, given equal starting points. In general, it is concluded that the model is well-suited to simulate possible future spatial patterns in the scenario or policy-optimisation studies that are typically carried out by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.