Future pathways to restore the ecological quality of global freshwater ecosystems

Ecology-based solution are essential to prevent further decline

The ecological quality of freshwater ecosystems has substantially decreased all over the world. We established an ecology-based global ‘High Ambition’ scenario comprised of several land and river basin management options that could be handled by the available models. These include sustainable agriculture -including mixed landscapes-, wastewater treatment, water savings, restrictions on hydropower, and conservation and restoration of wetlands. We modelled the effects on freshwater biodiversity intactness, algal blooms, and fish habitats as well as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) up to 2070, using a series of linked global models. We project, compared to the Baseline scenario,  important regional improvements in currently highly-impacted regions. In other regions, we project no improvement or even further deterioration. Globally, the effects of population and economic growth on the modelled indicators will just be neutralised. Despite uncertainties and model restrictions, we conclude that ecology-based measures are essential, but not sufficient, to prevent a further decline of freshwater ecosystems and their services.