Play the Long Game

Our scenario analysis shows that implementation of the global ambition in the 2030 GBF targets, as well as of collective ambition reflected in National Targets, will result in a significant improvement in biodiversity. From 2030 onwards, however, this improvement in biodiversity will decline again as climate change impacts as well as other pressures continue to increase. Scenarios implementing the 2030 GBF targets show a stronger improvement in biodiversity than the National Targets scenarios, as collective ambitions in National Targets do not (yet) match the ambitions of the 2030 GBF targets. This indicates a short-term ambition gap.

Meeting the 2050 GBF goals will require an increase in ambition and implementation beyond the 2030 GBF targets, especially in addressing the direct and indirect drivers of biodiversity loss. Comparing the GBF’s 2030 targets with long-term pathways identified in scenarios aimed at achieving the 2050 goals for biodiversity and staying below the 2° Celsius climate goals of the Paris agreement, shows that ambitious action is needed that goes beyond just conserving and restoring nature. This would require major changes in production and consumption systems.

The report provides three directions for strengthening biodiversity governance from a long-term perspective:

• Focus whole-of-government approaches on addressing direct and indirect drivers of biodiversity and long-term transition pathways, on the national and international level.
• Develop a more proactive approach to leverage the role of those non-state actors that act as frontrunners in advancing specific pathways for biodiversity.
• Consider starting a dialogue within CBD to address contributions and responsibilities across Parties to achieve the 2050 goals in an effective, efficient, and just way.

Beyond COP-17, the Global Review process can play an important and continuous role in the CBD to help articulating the long-term pathways towards the 2050 goals and informing the CBD post-2030 agenda.