Long-term outlook for Dutch aviation: the end of cheap flying? Decarbonization and capacity limits will reshape air travel growth in a mature market
Air travel to and from the Netherlands is facing a paradigm shift where the historical trend of declining airfares is likely to reverse. New research by PBL, published in the journal Case Studies on Transport Policy, indicates that the costs of the climate transition and physical capacity limits will reshape the sector up to 2060. This study looks into the future of the Dutch aviation sector as part of the broader study by PBL, Exploration of Pathways for the Living Environment (WLO).
The long-term outlook for the Dutch aviation sector up to 2060 is analyzed using four scenarios, which combine economic development (high/low) with the speed of adoption of environmental policies (fast/delayed). The scenarios include the dimensions of international demographics, economic development, European and global climate policy, and local airport capacity constraints. The availability of sustainable fuels is assessed for the global market.
Using four distinct scenarios, combining two dimensions of high/low economic and demographic growth and fast/delayed climate transitions, the study models future air travel demand, aircraft movements at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, energy requirements, and resulting CO2 emissions. The modeling is conducted using the AEOLUS model, which relies on population and economic growth, alongside the costs of flying, to determine travel demand using, among others, income and price elasticities.
The analysis reveals that in high-growth scenarios, unconstrained demand could lead to a doubling of aircraft movements to approximately 1 million per year at Schiphol by 2060. However, the flight cap of 500,000 movements at Schiphol, which was actual at the time of writing, represents the most significant limiting factor. This cap would be reached before 2030 in high-growth scenarios. This capacity scarcity incentivizes airlines to deploy larger aircraft, allowing passenger numbers to increase even after the flight limit is reached. Despite the fact that blending mandates for Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) substantially increase airlines’ operational costs, the effect of airport capacity limits in scenarios with high growth is expected to be stronger than the effect of significantly higher fuel prices.
All scenarios project a sharp decline in CO2 emissions after 2030, driven by mandated blending of SAF and efficiency gains. Consequently, a decades-long trend of falling airfares is expected to reverse, with ticket prices projected to rise across all scenarios due to higher fuel and carbon costs, compounded by capacity scarcity in high-growth scenarios.
