Current climate policies are inconsistent with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, but model-based scenario analyses also show that there are several opportunities to strengthen current climate policies.
The combined Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of all countries are not sufficient to achieve the Paris goals. Scenario analyses also show that current policies are insufficient to meet these NDCs. However, a scenario analysis using both global and national models shows how targets could still be achieved.
COMMIT and CD-LINKS projects
In the COMMIT and CD-LINKS projects, more than 10 modelling teams around the world are collaborating in order to support international climate policies. Scenarios developed by these teams have contributed to recent reports by IPCC and UNEP. The projects have also submitted their contribution directly to the Talanoa Dialogue, part of the Paris Agreement, to provide negotiators with the latest findings on ratcheting up ambition.
This policy brief presents new research findings related to the three Talanoa questions: where are we, where do we want to go, and how do we get there? It shows projected emission levels under current policies and NDCs, and resulting implementation and ambition gaps to achieving the Paris Agreement's long-term goals. It identifies opportunities for ratcheting up ambition, highlighting success stories and stressing the need to integrate climate policies with broader sustainable development policies. It shows that a shift in investment patterns is needed, from fossil to low-carbon energy and energy-efficiency investments. The low-carbon and energy-efficiency-investment gap in 2030 is projected to be USD 130 billion per year for NDCs, USD 300 billion per year for the 2 °C target, and USD 460 billion per year for the 1.5 °C target, compared to current policies.
UN Climate Change Conference (COP) 24
The findings will be presented at the UN Climate Change Conference in Katowice (Poland) in December (COP24), during two side events on 13 December.
- The first side event will take place at the EU pavilion (14:30–16:00 hrs) and is titled What a low-carbon world really looks like in the next decades: Modelling tools used and required for long-term planning.
- The second side event will take place in the Bieszczady room (18:30–20:00 hrs) and is titled NDC and LTS modelling: opportunities, lessons learnt and roadmaps for Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico.
The COMMIT project—Climate pOlicy assessment and Mitigation Modeling to Integrate national and global Transition pathways—aims to improve the modelling of national low-carbon emission pathways, and to improve the analysis of country contributions to the global ambition of the Paris Agreement. The consortium consists of 18 international research teams, including 14 national modelling teams in G20 countries, who regularly support domestic policymaking, and global integrated assessment modelling teams with extensive experience of global-scale modelling of climate change policies. The project is funded by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA).
The global stocktaking process of the Paris Agreement requires sufficient analytical capacity to ensure a fair evaluation of country policies, and requires a good understanding of the differences in outcomes and assumptions between the analytical teams that provide input into the negotiations. The COMMIT research project aims to contribute the analytical capacity to this process. Its contribution to the Talanoa Dialogue in 2018, preceding the official global stocktake which starts in 2023, is to jointly develop insights by discussing analyses of national and global low-carbon pathways among project partners and with policymakers.
The CD-LINKS research, Linking Climate and Development Policies – Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing, brings together a consortium of 19 leading international research organisations to explore national and global climate transformation strategies and their linkages to a range of SDGs. The project is funded by Horizon 2020, the European Commission’s ‘Framework Programme for Research and Innovation’.