Inequalities in the cooling gap and energy implications of adaptation

We find that 3.6 billion people worldwide are currently exposed to heat but lacking cooling access. While expected economic development allows many to gain access to cooling appliances in the future, this progress is offset by a growing population and exacerbated by climate change. 3.4 billion people are projected to remain in the cooling gap by 2100 in our Baseline scenario, mostly within Central and South America, Africa, and South Asia, due to high rates of heat exposure and expected income inequality preventing a large share of the population from fulfilling their cooling needs.

Providing cooling access to all heat-exposed populations is projected to raise cooling energy demand by 152% in 2050 and 76% in 2100. However, this increase can be avoided when combined with both policies to limit global mean temperature change to well-below 2 °C and an integrated approach incorporating energy-efficient cooling technologies, passive cooling, behavioural change, and improved urban planning. This study suggests that providing global access to residential space cooling can be achieved while meeting climate change policy goals, provided targeted policy action.