Assessing Intended Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Climate Agreement

Largest reductions can be expected from G20 countries

The INDCs of the G20 countries are projected to reduce emissions by approximately 9 to 10 GtCO2 eq by 2030, relative to the PBL business-as-usual scenario. The INDCs of other (non-G20) countries are projected to reduce emissions by an additional 0 to 1 GtCO2e. Among the G20, substantive absolute emission reductions can be expected for the United States, China, the EU28, India and Brazil.

INDCs result in decreasing per capita emissions

The assessment projects, based on the submitted INDCs, a decline in per capita emission levels in all G20 countries between 2010 and 2030 , except Argentina, China, India, the Russian Federation and Turkey. Similarly, emission intensities (emissions per GDP) are projected to decline between 2010 and 2030 in all G20 countries, except Turkey, indicating a relative decoupling of economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions.

Some countries are on track for the 2 °C climate target

Although the aggregate effect of submitted INDCs is projected nevertheless to lead to on-going increasing emissions until 2030 and to be insufficient to close the global emission gap, INDCs of some countries and regions would still put them on track with national emission pathways consistent with global cost-effective pathway for keeping the temperature increase below 2 °C pathways – notably the EU and the United States.