Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for major emitters
Analysis of current climate policies and mitigation commitments: 2023 Update

15-11-2023 | Rapport

This report by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 25 major emitting economies up to 2030 under currently implemented policies. All Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) updates since our last report represent an improvement on previous versions. The report concludes that 13 out of the 25 countries are on track to meet their current NDCs targets. The remaining twelve countries have an implementation gap; they need to adopt additional policies and follow up on the implementation of already adopted policies to meet their targets.

Current policy projections show limited climate change mitigation progress

Our projections indicate that GHG emissions in the 25 countries plateaued or slightly increased over the past year. Full implementation of existing policies results in 2030 emissions below 2019. Current policies result in 2030 emissions between -6% and +8% compared to 2019 levels (36.2 – 41.7 GtCO2e) – still falling short of the Paris Agreement's aligned 43% reduction.

Thirteen countries are likely on track to meet their current NDCs

Eleven out of the 25 countries are clearly on track to meet their latest NDC targets. This number remains unchanged compared to our 2022 report. Australia and the European Union are likely on track to meet their NDC targets based on the lower end of our projections. In both countries, the uncertainty in projections is caused by the implementation of policies at different governance levels. China, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Morocco are on track to meet their targets but could miss them if emissions grow as projected in the upper end of our scenarios. Several countries on track to meet their targets have submitted updated NDCs that result in 2030 emissions significantly higher than their current policies, indicating that they can meet their targets without adoption of additional policies.

The report includes detailed country factsheets for all 25 countries, providing information about climate policy developments, emission projections, NDC descriptions, key mitigation policies and key GHG indicators.