Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries: 2018 update

07-12-2018 | Publication

This report by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 25 major emitting countries/regions up to 2030, taking into account the emission trajectories based on current policies and the implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The report concludes that 16 out of the 25 countries and regions analysed are not on track to achieve the NDC targets they have set for themselves.

About two thirds of the 25 major emitting countries still not on track to achieve targets set in NDCs

The 2018 update takes into account policy developments since the 2017 report and latest historical greenhouse gas emissions data. The degree to which the 25 major emitting countries are likely to achieve their NDC targets under current policies was found to vary (see Figure), similar to last year’s report.

  • Of those considered in this report, China, Colombia, India, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia (new, compared to our 2017 report), Turkey, and the Ukraine are likely or roughly on track to achieve or even overachieve their self-determined unconditional 2025/2030 targets with currently implemented policies.
  • For the EU28 and Mexico, the achievement of 2030 targets was found to be uncertain with implemented policies.
  • The other 16 countries require additional measures to achieve their 2025/2030 targets (now including Brazil and Japan).
  • Brazil is now assessed as requiring additional measures to achieve its NDC, because of an update in GHG inventory data for the LULUCF sector, which showed higher emission levels than the inventory data used in the 2017 report.
  • Japan is now assessed as requiring additional measures, mainly due to the change in nuclear power share projections that are more in line with the current situation in Japan.

Less than half of thirteen major emitting economies show progress on 2030 emissions projections

The report also assessed how countries’ current policies scenario projections have changed since 2015, when the Paris Agreement was adopted. The comparison with our 2015 report, which covered thirteen countries, shows that only six countries (Australia, Canada, China, EU, Turkey and the United States) show lower emissions projections for 2030; for the remaining seven countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Republic of Korea, Russia) the projections were either similar or even higher.

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