Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

Fossil fuel CO2 emissions have increased significantly during the last decade. However, contrary to some statements in recent publications, current emissions are not higher than covered in the climate change scenarios used by the last two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments (even before the economic crisis). Such comparison should use the so-called marker scenarios. In addition, it is important to realize that short-term trends in actual emissions and long-term scenarios should be compared carefully.


Manning MR, Edmonds J, Emori S, Grubler, Hibbard K, Joos F, Kainuma M, Keeling RF, Kram T, Manning AC, Meinshausen M, Moss R, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Rose SK, Smith S, Swart R, van Vuuren DP


Publication title
Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios
Publication date
1 June 2010
Publication type
Nature Geoscience 3, 376 - 377
Product number