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The worldwide context of China’s Green Transition to 2050

Report | 01-12-2017

China is entering a crucial period of economic transformation, largely triggered by environmental issues. Chinese advisors are formulating a policy framework to guide this vast, complex and decades-long transformation. Meanwhile, PBL has made a start with assessing the worldwide implications. The PBL study was carried out at the request of the China Council for International Collaboration on Environment and Development.

PBL conducted model-based scenario analyses based on the recently developed Shared Socio-Economic Pathways. Economic projections were compared with those of the Development Research Centre of the State Council of China. PBL’s results are in terms of world regions, including the China region.

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By 2050, under the Green China plus scenario, China’s carbon dioxide emissions will be almost halved, compared to those under the baseline scenario. However, this is only half of what is needed for climate stabilisation at an average warming of 2 °C.

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The Green China plus scenario results in some mitigation of the global temperature increase, but not enough to achieve the 2 °C target.

The PBL study is the result of a preliminary project, rather than a full assessment. It was carried out in collaboration with Utrecht University and with the financial support of the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management.

More information

Shared Socio-economic Pathways

Global Land Outlook

Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE)

Author(s)Jan Bakkes; Harmen Sytze de Boer; Oreane Y. Edelenbosch; Detlef P. van Vuuren
Report no.2982
Publication date01-12-2017