This study investigates the progress of current mitigation actions undertaken by major emitting economies worldwide. It provides an in-depth analysis of the projected impact of currently implemented policies and compares this to the targets set by the countries in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and national communications. This research shows the effect of climate policies on indicators beyond emissions, thereby presenting a more elaborate check of progress toward meeting climate targets in the 12 major emitting economies of Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Russia and the United States. It should be noted that an evaluation of the ambition levels of the actions and targets was outside the scope of this study and is therefore not included in this report.
Most analysed countries not on track to meeting indicator targets
For this study, a methodology was developed to express national targets in comparable definitions to enable a comparison between targets and actual climate policy projections for six Kaya identity-inspired indicators. In so doing, this report adds an analysis of drivers of emissions to the country profiles published annually in which emission levels resulting from current climate policies are compared to those targeted under NDCs.
This research finds that countries’ level of progress regarding their targets on the driving factors of emissions (the six indicators) is quite diverse. Four of the twelve countries analysed (i.e. China, India, Japan and the Russian Federation) are on track to achieving their 2030 pledges with the policies they have implemented and are projected to achieve most of the indicator targets. This also means that most of the countries analysed are not on track. The share of renewable energy in electricity generation presents an exception, with seven of the remaining eight countries were found to be on track to achieving their targets for 2020, 2025 or 2030.