Climate pledges leave the world on track for a temperature rise of 2.4-2.6°C by the end of this century Updated pledges since COP26 in Glasgow take less than one per cent off projected 2030 greenhouse gas emissions; 45 per cent is needed for limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Transforming the electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems would help put world on a path to success. These are some of the main conclusions from the 2022 Emissions Gap Report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), to which PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency contributed.
Updated NDCs since Glasgow takes only one percent off projected emissions in 2030
Despite a call for strengthened Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) or climate pledges for 2030, progress since COP26 in Glasgow (November 2021) has been inadequate, and take only 0.5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent greenhouse gas emissions (GtCO2e), less than one per cent, off projected global emissions in 2030. All unconditional and conditional NDCs are estimated to reduce global emissions in 2030 by 5 and 10 per cent respectively, compared with emissions based on policies currently in, whereas 30 per cent and 45 per cent reduction is needed for limiting global warming to 2°C and 1.5°C. Looking at all new and updated NDCs submitted between 1 January 2020 and 23 September 2022, the count is 166 nations, representing 91 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions, up from 152 parties as of COP26. Most G20 members have just started implementing efforts to meet their new targets; collectively, the G20 is expected to fall short of its 2030 promises without strengthened action.
NDCs are estimated to give a 66 per cent chance of limiting global warming to about 2.6°C by 2100
For conditional NDCs, this goes down to 2.4°C. Policies currently in place, without further strengthening, suggest a 2.8°C increase. Implementation of all NDCs plus net-zero commitments made by an increasing number of countries point to a 1.8°C increase. However, this scenario is not credible, based on the discrepancy between current emissions, near-term NDC targets and long-term net-zero targets.