The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources
This paper assesses the implications of climate policy for exposure to water resources stresses. It compares a Reference scenario which leads to an increase in global mean temperature of 4 °C by the…
Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment
This paper present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an Integrated Assessment Model. The experiment employs ten…
Holocene carbon emissions as a result of anthropogenic land cover change
Humans have altered the Earth’s land surface since the Paleolithic mainly by clearing woody vegetation first to improve hunting and gathering opportunities, and later to provide agricultural cropland…
The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation
Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with no mitigation…
Uncertainty and risk in climate projections for the 21st century
There are by now many studies on estimation of uncertainty of climate system properties and model parameters but still only few on probabilistic climate projections. Moreover, most of these studies…
The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets
The relationship between long-term climate goals and short/medium-term emission targets forms crucial information for the design of international climate policy. Since IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report…
Impact of future land use and land cover changes on atmospheric chemistry‐climate interactions
To demonstrate potential future consequences of land cover and land use changes beyond those for physical climate and the carbon cycle, we present an analysis of large-scale impacts of land cover and…
Water and nutrient fluxes from major Mediterranean and Black Sea rivers
Because of the ongoing evolution toward dryer and warmer conditions, we predict a significant trend of decreasing freshwater fluxes for the future, which already started in the past. Regional hot…
Towards a general relationship between climate change and biodiversity: An example for plant species in Europe
Climate change is one of the main factors that will affect biodiversity in the future and may even cause species extinctions. We suggest a methodology to derive a general relationship between…
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency