The impact of near-term climate policy choices on technology and emission transition pathways
This paper explores the implications of delays (to 2030) in implementing optimal policies for long-term transition pathways to limit climate forcing to 450 ppm CO 2 equivalent on the basis of the…
Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in scenarios similar to the Representative Concentration Pathways
The uncertain, future development of emissions of short-lived trace gases and aerosols forms a key factor for future air quality and climate forcing. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)…
Energy demand and emissions of the non-energy sector
The demand for fossil fuels for non-energy purposes such as production of bulk chemicals is poorly understood. In this study we analyse data on non-energy demand and disaggregate it across key…
Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios
Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result from air pollutants. Non-Kyoto…
Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report noted that Annex I countries’ targets for 2020 would need to be 25% to 40% below the 1990 level to be in line with the 2° Celsius (C) target. What is the equivalent…
Countries’ contributions to climate change: effect of accounting for all greenhouse gases, recent trends, basic needs and technological progress
Discussions at UN climate negotiations tend to focus on which countries have contributed most to climate change. This contribution depends on the methods for calculating both historical and current…
The impact of technology availability on the timing and costs of emission reductions for achieving long-term climate targets
While most long-term mitigation scenario studies build on a broad portfolio of mitigation technologies, there is quite some uncertainty about the availability and reduction potential of these…
The European Commission has launched a discussion with its Green Paper on climate and energy policies. PBL has analysed the effects of various assumptions on Member States' emission targets for 2030…
A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions
The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related…
Using logged trees as a bioenergy source – replacing fossil fuel – carries the risk of first increasing CO 2 emissions before reducing them. It could in fact take up to 100 years before emissions…
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
