Integrated modeling of nature’s role in human well-being: A research agenda

Integrated assessment models that incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services could be an important tool for improving our understanding of interconnected social-economic-ecological systems, and for analyzing how policy alternatives can shift future trajectories towards more sustainable development. Despite recent scientific and technological advances, key gaps remain in the scientific community’s ability to deliver information to decision-makers at the pace and scale needed to address sustainability challenges. 

We identify five research frontiers for integrated social-economic-ecological modeling (primarily focused on terrestrial systems) to incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services: 1) downscaling impacts of direct and indirect drivers on ecosystems; 2) incorporating feedbacks in ecosystems; 3) linking ecological impacts to human well-being, 4) disaggregating outcomes for distributional equity considerations, and 5) incorporating dynamic feedbacks of ecosystem services on the social-economic system. We discuss progress and challenges along each of these five frontiers and the science-policy linkages needed to move new research and information into action.

Authors

PBL Authors
Rob Alkemade Aafke Schipper Elke Stehfest Detlef van Vuuren Jan Janse
Other authors
Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer
Stephen Polasky
Neil D. Burgess
William W.L. Cheung
Ingo Fetzer
Mike Harfoot
Thomas W. Hertel
Samantha L.L. Hill
Justin Andrew Johnson
Patrick José v. Jeetze
HyeJin Kim
Jan J. Kuiper
Eric Lonsdorf
David Leclère
Mark Mulligan
Garry D. Peterson
Alexander Popp
Stephanie Roe
Tord Snäll
Arnout van Soesbergen
Aline C. Soterroni
Piero Visconti
Lan Wang-Erlandsson
Geoff Wells
Henrique M. Pereira

Specifications

Publication title
Integrated modeling of nature’s role in human well-being: A research agenda
Publication date
12 August 2024
Publication type
Article
Publication language
English
Magazine
Global Environmental Change
Issue
Volume 88 , September 2024, 102891
Product number
5652