Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050

Decarbonization of energy-using sectors is essential for tackling climate change. We use an ensemble of global integrated assessment models to assess CO2 emissions reduction potentials in buildings and transport, accounting for system interactions. We focus on three intervention strategies with distinct emphases: reducing or changing activity, improving technological efficiency and electrifying energy end use. 

We find that these strategies can reduce emissions by 51–85% in buildings and 37–91% in transport by 2050 relative to a current policies scenario (ranges indicate model variability). Electrification has the largest potential for direct emissions reductions in both sectors. Interactions between the policies and measures that comprise the three strategies have a modest overall effect on mitigation potentials. However, combining different strategies is strongly beneficial from an energy system perspective as lower electricity demand reduces the need for costly supply-side investments and infrastructure.

Authors

PBL Authors
Rik van Heerden Vassilis Daioglou Detlef van Vuuren
Other authors
Oreane Y. Edelenbosch
Thomas Le Gallic
Luiz Bernardo Baptista
Alice Di Bella
Francesco Pietro Colelli
Johannes Emmerling
Panagiotis Fragkos
Robin Hasse
Johanna Hoppe
Paul Kishimoto
Florian Leblanc
Julien Lefèvre
Gunnar Luderer
Giacomo Marangoni
Alessio Mastrucci
Hazel Pettifor
Robert Pietzcker
Pedro Rochedo
Bas van Ruijven
Roberto Schaeffer
Charlie Wilson
Sonia Yeh
Eleftheria Zisarou

Specifications

Publication title
Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050
Publication date
5 February 2025
Publication type
Article
Publication language
English
Magazine
Nature Energy
Issue
volume 10, pages 380–394 (2025)
Product number
5851