Achieving net-zero emissions targets: an analysis of long-term scenarios using an integrated assessment model

More than 100 countries have communicated or adopted new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and net-zero target pledges. This paper investigates the impact on global, national, sectoral, and individual greenhouse gas emissions projections under different scenarios based on the announced NDCs and net-zero pledges using the IMAGE integrated assessment model.

Our results show that while the net-zero pledges, if implemented, could be an important step forward, they are still not enough to achieve the Paris Agreement goals of well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C by the end of the century. Still, our net-zero scenarios project significant all-sector decarbonisation, in particular, electricity. However, certain sectors like industry and transport prove hard to completely abate.

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Publication title
Achieving net-zero emissions targets: An analysis of long-term scenarios using an integrated assessment model
Publication date
25 February 2023
Publication type
Publication language
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
Product number