Climate and Energy Outlook of the Netherlands 2026

A large gap between ambition and policy towards 2040 

As of January 1, 2026, with current implemented policy (‘the baseline projection’), we are heading towards a 57-68% emission reduction in 2040. If we also include calculable plans (‘additional policy’), this figure reaches 61-72%. Accordingly, the Netherlands is not on track to reach the legal goal of climate neutrality in 2050. 

Emission reductions for 2030 stagnate 

The projected emission reductions for 2030 have been stagnating for three years now, as political deadlocks have slowed down the energy transition. It remains extremely unlikely that the Netherlands will reach the climate goal of 2030. 

Strong additional policy is needed to get the energy transition on track 

In the 35 years between 1990 and 2025, the Netherlands has reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by approximately one-third. The remaining two-thirds in emission reductions must be realised in the 24 years left through 2050, which is a significant challenge. To get the energy transition on track soon, strong additional policy is needed, on both a national and European level. However, it is also important that such policy is not only aimed at 2030, but leads to structural emission reductions in the long term. 

Dependence on fossil imports will remain high towards 2040 

In 2025, the Netherlands imported 77% of its energy use. Because of increased use of renewable energy, energy dependence will decrease again to 65-70% in 2030, and 49-63% in 2040. This will make the Netherlands more resilient to shocks on the world market, which have occurred regularly in recent years, but the dependence on the import of fossil energy still remains high. The dependence on fossil imports does remain high, however. The annual Climate and Energy Outlook of the Netherlands is mandated by Dutch Climate Law and serves as one of the accountability instruments for Dutch climate and energy policy.