Enhancing mitigation ambitions in the major emitting countries: analysis of current and potential climate policies

29-04-2015 | Publication

This study provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas emissions in seven major emitting countries (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, and the United States) up to 2030, resulting from current, planned and selected enhanced mitigation policies. The emission projection associated with the enhanced mitigation policies shows that by replicating ‘best-in-class’ policies or progressing to identified benchmarks, it is possible to significantly increase current mitigation efforts.

Major emitting countries on track to achieve 2020 pledges, but further reductions possible

Ecofys & NewClimate Institute, IIASA and PBL estimated the impact of current, planned and selected enhanced policies on greenhouse gas emissions, using existing scenarios and model calculations.

The main findings are:

  • Some countries are likely to achieve their 2020 pledges through current policies, while others require the effective implementation of planned policies or additional measures.
  • In all the countries considered, significant further reductions are possible through an illustrative (not exhaustive) selection of enhanced mitigation actions that are related to current national priorities. These selected enhanced policies are still insufficient to stay below the 2 °C climate target.
  • With the selected enhanced mitigation actions, Brazil, China and Mexico would stabilise emissions by 2030 at the latest. Japan and the United States would achieve a pathway with further reductions in line with their long-term targets. Emissions in India and Indonesia would continue to increase strongly, but to lower levels compared to the emission projections associated with the current policies.